2 Important Ideas are associated with this point.
Problem of Induction
- The Problem of Induction was put forth by David Hume in 18th century.
- Induction refers to the process of drawing conclusion from an observation.
- Eg: The Sun has risen every day in recorded history, therefore it will rise tomorrow.
The Problem
- The above example assumes that the future will resemble the past whereas, there is no logical proof for the same.
The Conclusion
- Essentially it boils down to the fact that Induction cannot be justified but it can increase confidence in a belief that it will continue to happen in the future though there is no logical proof to it.
Falsification Principle
- The Falsification Principle was proposed by Karl Popper as a response to the Problem of Induction raised by David Hume.
- It asserts that science doesn’t advance by proving theories true— it advances by proving theories false.
- Eg: A person may claim that a trading strategy works in all market conditions. The real test is exposing it to different market regimes and looking for situations where it fails. One failure is enough to falsify the claim, whereas many successes cannot conclusively prove it true